Deal or No Deal?

Monday 01 February 10

One thing we're not particularly good at in Northern Ireland is deadlines!  This is particularly true of our politicians.  The Thursday before Easter was the deadline in 1998, and the fact that we got the 'Good Friday Agreement' the following day, speaks for itself! 

However the events of the past week take not meeting deadlines to new extremes.  In spite of well over 100 hours of negotiations, the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Féin are still at it!  The main issue is the devolution of Policing and Justice powers to the local Assembly.  This means that (if the negotiations are successful) we will soon have a local Minister responsible for the police, the courts and other aspects of justice, including the Youth Justice Agency.

We also understand that a lot of other issues, including the Irish language, parades, and possibly the replacement to the 'A Shared Future' policy, are all in the mix.

It is not just the issues that are at stake.  Sinn Fein have indicated that if the talks are not successful they are likely to pull out of the Executive (the collection of Ministers who run the Northern Ireland administration) - creating a crisis that could easily lead to the collapse of the Assembly - forcing an election.  Given that an election is already happening - the election of the new UK Parliament - most likely in May - this would mean two elections this year - possibly on the same date in May.

Given the recent (separate) scandals that have affected Peter Robinson and Gerry Adams, neither party may want to risk two elections - particularly given that there would be no guarantee that if the Assembly collapses the parties would be able to get it re-established after an election, when there would need to be agreement on the appointment of the First and Deputy First Ministers.

Meanwhile, there have also been wider developments within the Unionist political family.  According to the BBC, the Orange Order chaired secret talks between the DUP and the Ulster Unionists on creating an electoral pact in the event of an Assembly election.  The two parties and the Orange Order are worried about the prospects of a Sinn Fein First Minister, and the purpose of the pact would be to ensure that the Unionist community retained the First Minister position.  There are already signs that the proposed arrangements are creating problems within the Ulster Unionist party.

So, what do you think about all of this stuff?  Are you interested?  Do you care if Policing and Justice is transferred?  Given the problems these parties have had working together do you think they are likely to make a good job of administering the Justice portfolio?  The favourite to take the position is David Ford MLA - leader of the Alliance Party.  Do you think this would be a good appointment?  Ford described his party as being in an opposition position - but if they take the Justice portfolio then they would become part of the Executive.

We would love to hear your views in our forum.