A Hung Parliament – Could Northern Ireland Hold the Balance?

Monday 10 May 10

Three hundred and twenty six was the original magic figure for a party to form a government.  326 MPs represented a majority of one in a parliament of 650 MPs. That was the number of seats a party had to win to get into government.  However, Northern Ireland has by accident changed the parliamentary mathematics. Sinn Fein's continued abstentionism from Westminster brings the figure of sitting MPs down to 645 since the party's five MPs will not sit in the Commons. So the new target is 323 which still leaves both David Cameron and Gordon Brown with post-election headaches and explains why both need the support of  Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems to form a government. The Conservatives and the Liberals could make an agreement in a number of ways. They could form a coalition which would result in Liberal Democrats sitting in the Cabinet. Alternatively they could have a formal understanding where they would agree to support the Conservatives during the Queen's speech and the budget speech.

However should a Cameron/Clegg deal fail to materialise the Conservatives will need other support.

The DUP, who now have eight seats, have traditionally supported the Conservatives and have voted with the Tories over 90% of the time at Westminster. Many within the DUP would be naturally Conservative on issues like law and order and the constitution. Before the DUP would agree to support the Conservatives the party would need guarantees over the block grant and over spending in Northern Ireland.

The new North Antrim MP Ian Paisley Junior says the party's priority is political and economic stability.

Although the DUP voting record shows they have sided more often with the Conservatives, some Tories have not forgiven the DUP for voting with Labour in key occasions in the last parliament.

During the election campaign, David Cameron did make a number of attacks on the DUP and the Conservatives link-up with the Ulster Unionists did create tension between the Tories and the DUP.

The party does have a good relationship with Labour and successfully negotiated with Gordon Brown for extra money for the devolution of policing and justice.

At this stage, the DUP are being non-committal on which Westminster party they would support.

However if a Conservative-Liberal deal collapses, Labour would need several parties to help them into power. A Lib-Lab agreement would only bring 315 votes which is short of the required target so Labour would then go looking for support. Labour may look to Scotland and Wales but may also look across the Irish Sea. The SDLP traditionally takes the Labour whip and their three MPs - Mark Durkan, Margaret Ritchie and Alasdair McDonnell - would back a Labour administration. The new East Belfast MP Naomi Long would most likely support her colleagues in the Liberal Democrats, which is a sister party to Alliance.

Lady Sylvia Hermon is another MP who would most likely support a non-Tory administration.

Her opposition to the Conservatives is well documented and resulted in her resignation from the Ulster Unionist Party. Now sitting as an independent MP she is on record as saying she would vote against David Cameron as prime minister. So Northern Ireland could initially deliver 5 votes for a Lib-Lab administration. That figure could grow to 13 if the DUP came on board. However all local MPs would seek guarantees about Northern Ireland's block grant and over other economic matters. The election is over but the arm twisting and the real political bargaining is now underway.

Source

BBC Northern Ireland